Falcon Trades Weekly | Week 29 (Jul 7–20): What’s Next for Gulf & Global Markets?

Executive Summary

The global financial landscape during the week of July 7-11, 2025, was characterized by a nuanced interplay of advancing equities and persistent underlying economic factors. Global stock markets generally saw gains, supported by a prevailing optimism surrounding potential future interest rate adjustments and a perceived easing of U.S. trade tariff rhetoric. However, by the week's close, some major U.S. indices experienced slight pullbacks, reflecting a mixed investor sentiment. Oil prices remained largely stable, navigating the complex dynamics of U.S. trade tariffs and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea region. A standout performer was the cryptocurrency market, which witnessed a significant surge, culminating in Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs. This remarkable ascent was primarily driven by substantial institutional capital inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and increasing anticipation of clearer regulatory frameworks.

Within the regional context, UAE markets, specifically the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX) and the Dubai Financial Market (DFM), recorded positive weekly performances, extending the upward trajectory observed throughout June. This positive momentum was underpinned by notable foreign capital inflows into key sectors such as Financials and Real Estate. Across the broader Middle East, most regional indices generally demonstrated positive weekly gains, signaling a resilient market environment. In the United States, major indices including the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq posted solid gains over the holiday-shortened trading week, achieving new record highs. Nevertheless, some profit-taking activity led to minor declines by July 11. Indian markets, as represented by the Nifty and Sensex, concluded the week flat to slightly lower. This performance was influenced by a combination of mixed global cues and net outflows from Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs), despite sustained support from Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs).

Looking ahead to the week of July 14-20, market participants are expected to remain keenly focused on central bank monetary policy signals, forthcoming inflation data, and the evolving landscape of global trade dynamics across various regions. Additionally, significant regulatory discussions within the cryptocurrency sector are poised to attract considerable attention, potentially shaping market direction.

I. UAE & Middle East Market Review (July 7-11, 2025)

A. Index Performance

The Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX) concluded the week of July 7-11, 2025, with a gain of +0.7%, reaching a closing level of 10,047.8 points. Similarly, the Dubai Financial Market (DFM) advanced by +1.4% during the same period, ending at 5,829.9 points. This positive performance in the UAE was mirrored across other key Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) indices: the Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) in Riyadh gained +0.4%, the Qatar Stock Exchange Index (QSI) was up +0.6%, the Boursa Kuwait Main Market Index (BKM) saw a notable +1.7% increase, the Muscat Stock Exchange 30 Index (MSX) rose +1.2%, the Bahrain Bourse All Share Index (BHSEASI) climbed +0.7%, and the Egyptian Exchange (EGX) recorded a +1.4% gain.

The MSCI UAE index, a benchmark for the broader UAE market, experienced a weekly gain of 1.1%. This regional strength stands in contrast to the broader MSCI EMEA (Europe, Middle East, and Africa) index, which posted a modest 0.1% gain, and particularly diverged from the MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) index, which registered a decline of -0.7%. This clear divergence in performance between the GCC region and the wider emerging markets indicates that the GCC, especially the UAE, is exhibiting a degree of decoupling from general trends affecting other developing economies. This can be attributed to specific regional strengths, including relatively stable oil prices, robust expansion in non-oil sectors, and substantial government-backed development projects. For instance, Abu Dhabi's economy expanded by 3.4% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2025, reaching a GDP of AED291 billion.

The positive performance observed in UAE markets during this week is not an isolated event but a continuation of a sustained bullish sentiment. Reports from the preceding period, such as those for the week ending July 5, indicated that ADX was up 0.2% and DFM also up 0.2%. Furthermore, the Aletihad News Center highlighted that UAE stock markets extended their gains in June, with the ADX rising 2.8% and the DFM advancing 4.1%, marking their third consecutive monthly increases. This consistent upward trend underscores a well-entrenched positive trajectory, supported by ongoing fundamental strengths and investor confidence in the region's economic outlook.

Table: Weekly Index Performance (July 7-10, 2025)

B. Top & Worst Performing Stocks

The performance of individual stocks on both the ADX and DFM during the week of July 7-11, 2025, highlights specific areas of investor interest and caution.

On the **ADX**, top performers included Presight, which surged by +18.2%, Hayah with a +12.4% gain, and ADNIC, up +12.0%. Other notable outperformers were GFH (+10.8%), Burjeel (+10.5%), Pure Health (+10.1%), ADPorts (+10.0%), Bildco (+7.2%), Fertiglobe (+6.3%), and ADCB (+6.2%). Conversely, the underperformers on ADX included Al Khaleej, which saw a significant decline of -12.8%, ESG (-7.0%), and ADSB (-5.2%). Other stocks that faced downward pressure were ASM (-4.0%), Ghitha (-3.6%), RPM (-3.5%), Americana (-3.0%), Alpha Dhabi (-2.5%), FAB (-2.3%), and EMSteel (-2.1%).

A pattern observed among the top gainers, such as Presight, Hayah, Pure Health, and Bildco, suggests a market environment that is currently favoring high-growth or potentially more speculative assets. Presight and Pure Health operate in the technology and healthcare sectors, respectively, while Hayah and Bildco exhibit exceptionally high Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratios (180.4x and NA, respectively) and substantial Year-to-Date (YTD) gains (70.5% and 96.5%, respectively). This indicates that specific positive news, strong thematic interest (e.g., the burgeoning AI sector for Presight, or significant real estate development for Bildco), or a general risk-on appetite among certain investor segments is driving these movements. The willingness of investors to bid up stocks with very high P/E ratios underscores that growth expectations are currently overriding immediate valuation concerns for a segment of the market.

On the **DFM**, DSI led the outperformers with a +12.4% increase, followed by UPP (+11.9%) and IF Advisors (+9.1%). DIC (+8.2%), Al Salam (S) (+7.4%), Gulf Nav (+6.2%), DFM (+5.3%), GFH (+4.8%), Takaful Emarat (+4.1%), and ENBD (+3.9%) also posted strong gains. Among the underperformers on DFM, Agility recorded a sharp decline of -21.8%, while Mubasher fell -4.4% and Amlak dropped -3.7%. Other stocks experiencing declines included ERC (-3.3%), NGI (-3.1%), Salik (-2.9%), Al Ramz (-2.8%), DU (-1.6%), Aramex (-1.1%), and Parkin (-1.0%). The underperformance of established industrial and consumer discretionary stocks, such as Agility and Americana, suggests a selective investor appetite and a potential rotation of capital, possibly involving profit-taking from previously strong performers.

Individual corporate announcements also played a role in shaping market activity. For instance, Emirates Driving Company (DRIVE) agreed to acquire a 22.5% stake in Mwasalat Holding LLC. While DRIVE did not feature among the top ADX weekly price gainers, it was prominently listed as an Average Daily Traded Value (ADTV) gainer, showing a 4.6x increase in 1W vs. 3M ADTV, despite a modest -0.3% weekly price return. This suggests heightened investor interest and trading volume, likely in anticipation of future growth or strategic shifts resulting from the acquisition. Similarly, Modon’s announcement of a complete sell-out of its Wadeem project on Hudayriyat Island within 72 hours, generating AED5.5 billion in sales, likely contributed to the positive sentiment observed in the broader real estate sector, which was noted as a leading performer in June. These examples highlight how specific corporate developments can drive liquidity and shape investor perceptions beyond simple weekly price changes.

Table: ADX Top Weekly Movers (Gainers & Losers)

Table: DFM Top Weekly Movers (Gainers & Losers)

C. Foreign Fund Flows & Key Regional News

Foreign capital played a significant role in UAE market dynamics during the week. Emaar led the inflows with AED 98.7 million, followed by ADIB (AED 80.6 million) and Amanat (AED 79.5 million). Other substantial inflows were directed towards ALDAR (AED 59.9 million), Emirates NBD (AED 45.5 million), and ADCB (AED 34.3 million). This indicates strong international investor confidence in key sectors such as real estate and financials.

Conversely, some companies experienced notable outflows. PureHealth saw the largest outflow of AED 66.6 million, followed by Salik (AED 31.7 million) and ADNOCGAS (AED 27.0 million). Air Arabia also recorded significant outflows of AED 22.3 million. These outflows could be attributed to profit-taking, rebalancing of portfolios, or specific company-related news.

From a sectoral perspective, Financials attracted the largest foreign inflows, totaling AED 464.0 billion for the week, followed by Real Estate with AED 204.1 billion. Communication Services (AED 49.2 billion) and Utilities (AED 24.7 billion) also saw substantial positive flows. On the other hand, Health Care experienced the largest outflows of AED 76.6 billion, followed by Energy (AED 38.4 billion) and Materials (AED 21.1 billion). The strong inflows into Financials and Real Estate align with the overall positive market performance, suggesting these sectors are perceived as robust investment opportunities.

Beyond market movements, several key regional developments shaped the economic narrative. Abu Dhabi's economy demonstrated significant expansion, growing by 3.4% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2025, with its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reaching AED291 billion. This growth underscores the emirate's economic diversification efforts and resilience.

In the real estate sector, the Emirates Stallions Group's subsidiary, Royal Development Holding, in collaboration with SAAS Properties and Marriott International, unveiled "Seamont Autograph Collection Residences," a new waterfront landmark on Abu Dhabi's Shams Al Reem Island. This project highlights continued investment in luxury development. Further reinforcing the strong real estate market, Modon announced the complete sell-out of its Wadeem project on Hudayriyat Island within 72 hours, generating AED5.5 billion in sales. This rapid absorption of new inventory points to robust demand and investor appetite in the property market.

In the transportation sector, Emirates Driving Company (DRIVE) agreed to acquire a 22.5% stake in Mwasalat Holding LLC, with an option to increase its shareholding to 50.6% subject to approvals. This strategic move could reshape the transportation landscape in the region.

II. USA Market Review (July 7-11, 2025)

A. Index Performance

Major U.S. stock indexes demonstrated solid gains during the holiday-abbreviated trading week ending July 11, 2025. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.3%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite tacked on 1.7% and 1.6%, respectively, as of July 3, 2025. This marked the third straight week of gains for the Dow and the Nasdaq, and the second consecutive week for the S&P 500. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closed at record highs on four of the past five days, with the Dow just 0.4% away from setting its first all-time high since December 4. Year-to-date in 2025, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have risen nearly 7%, while the Dow is up 5.4%.

However, by July 11, some of these gains saw a slight reversal. The S&P 500 closed 0.3% lower after setting a record high the previous day, marking its first weekly loss after two consecutive weeks of gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite gave up 0.2% after drifting between small gains and losses throughout the day. This indicates a period of consolidation or profit-taking following the strong rally.

B. Key Economic Data & Corporate Earnings

The U.S. economic data released during the week presented a mixed picture. The June employment report, released on Thursday, July 10, was more robust than anticipated. Initial jobless claims came in at 227,000 for the week ending July 5, a decrease of 5,000 from the prior week's revised level of 232,000. Continuing claims for the week ending June 28 totaled 1,965,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week, marking the highest level for insured unemployment since November 2021. This unexpected strength in the jobs report reduced expectations among traders for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts as soon as its July meeting.

Inflation data for May showed the all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 2.4% over the past 12 months, after a 2.3% increase in April. The all-items less food and energy index rose 2.8% year-over-year. The energy index decreased 3.5% for the 12 months ending May, with gasoline prices falling 12.0% over this period. In contrast, electricity increased 4.5% and natural gas rose 15.3%. Consumer sentiment, as indicated by the Expectations Index, fell 4.6 points to 69.0 in June, remaining below the 80-point threshold that typically signals an impending recession. Consumers were more pessimistic about future business conditions and job availability.

In terms of corporate earnings, the second-quarter earnings season was set to begin in earnest. For the week of July 7-13, only one major company, Delta Air Lines (DAL), had an earnings report scheduled for Thursday, July 10, pre-market open. Delta Air Lines, Inc. beat second-quarter earnings and revenue estimates, which sent airline stocks soaring. Shares of United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) and American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) added 14.3% and 12.7%, respectively. This strong performance from a key airline suggests resilience in consumer travel spending despite broader economic concerns.

C. AI Stock Performance & Market Drivers

AI-related stocks on NASDAQ showed mixed performance during the week. Large technology companies that have driven recent rallies, such as Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), and Broadcom (AVGO), were mostly higher on Thursday, July 3, with each climbing more than 1%. Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOG), and Meta Platforms (META) also saw gains. SentinelOne (NYSE: S) and Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG)(NASDAQ: GOOGL), despite being down year-to-date as of July 1, were seen as potential rebound candidates for the second half of 2025 due to strong underlying businesses and leadership in AI.

SentinelOne, with its AI-powered cybersecurity platform, reported $229 million in Q1 fiscal 2026 revenue, a 23% year-over-year increase, although this was a deceleration from the previous quarter. Management lowered its full-year fiscal 2026 forecast due to macroeconomic uncertainties. Alphabet's Q1 2025 revenue was $90.2 billion, up 12% year-over-year, with Google Search revenue up 10% and Google Cloud revenue up 28%. Alphabet's AI initiatives, including AI Overviews in Google Search and its Gemini chatbot, are seen as significant opportunities. Dell Technologies (DELL) was highlighted as a potential bargain in the AI market, with strong demand for AI servers and edge devices. Dell reported a 12% year-over-year jump in revenue for its infrastructure solutions group in Q1 fiscal 2026 and booked $12 billion in AI server orders.

The market continues to be influenced by President Trump's tariff actions. While some tariffs were rolled back after April, new rounds of tariff letters were unveiled, including a 50% rate on Brazil. However, markets appeared largely unbothered by these announcements on Thursday, July 11, with the implementation date weeks away (August 1). This suggests traders viewed the moves as political posturing rather than immediate economic threats, maintaining faith in underlying economic momentum. The U.S. government also eliminated restrictions on exporting semiconductor design software to China, leading to gains in chip-design software firms like Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) and Synopsys (SNPS). Overall, the market's ability to shrug off tariff rhetoric indicates a resilient risk appetite, supported by strong earnings from key companies and confidence in the U.S. economy's strength.

III. India Market Review (July 7-11, 2025)

A. Index Performance

The Indian stock market experienced a relatively subdued week from July 7-11, 2025, with major indices closing on a flat to slightly negative note. On July 7, the Nifty 50 ended flat at 25,461, and the Sensex inched up a marginal 0.01% to settle at 83,442. However, by July 11, the Sensex had fallen to 82,500 points, losing 0.83% from the previous session, while the Nifty 50 dipped 0.81% to 25,149.85. This indicates a negative shift in market sentiment towards the end of the week. The NSE MidCap 100 index ended down by 0.27%, and the NSE SmallCap 100 index fell by 0.44%, suggesting that riskier assets were not performing well.

B. Market Drivers & Sector Performance

The Indian market's performance was influenced by a combination of domestic and global factors. Gains in FMCG and auto stocks, such as Hindustan Unilever (HUL), Nestle, and Eicher Motors, offered some support to the market on July 7. HUL, for instance, surged 3.04% and was a top gainer on July 11 as well, rising 4.63%. Other top gainers on July 11 included SBI Life Insurance Company (+1.37%) and Sun Pharmaceutical (+0.71%).

Conversely, losses in stocks like Bharat Electronics, Tech Mahindra, and ONGC capped upside momentum. On July 11, major losers included TCS (-3.47%), M&M (-2.92%), Hero MotoCorp (-2.74%), Wipro (-2.62%), and Bajaj Auto (-2.54%).

Sectoral performance was mixed. The Nifty FMCG index led the charge with a 1.68% rise, driven by strong performances from heavyweights like Godrej Consumer Products, Dabur India, and Hindustan Unilever. The Nifty Oil & Gas and Nifty Energy indices also closed in the green, reflecting investor optimism in energy-related stocks, partly due to OPEC+ agreeing to hike oil production in August, which could lower raw material costs for companies like Asian Paints and Indian Oil Corporation (IOC). On the other hand, the Nifty IT, Metal, Bank, Auto, Consumer Durables, and Pharma indices all ended the day lower, with some companies in these sectors seeing declines of up to 2%. Defence stocks, after a recent rally, faced a pullback, with Paras Defence down by 7.84%.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in July so far, with outflows of ₹5,400 crore. However, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) remained net buyers, with ₹8,253 crore in inflows, which helped cushion sharp declines. This continued DII support indicates underlying domestic confidence in the market. Global factors, such as the unexpected increase in oil production by OPEC+ and trade tensions sparked by U.S. tariff announcements, are expected to continue influencing market sentiment.

IV. Cryptocurrency Market Review (July 7-11, 2025)

A. Bitcoin's All-Time High and Market Dynamics

The cryptocurrency market experienced a momentous week, highlighted by Bitcoin achieving new all-time highs. This surge was primarily driven by substantial institutional inflows into Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and growing anticipation of clearer regulatory frameworks.

Bitcoin reached a new all-time high, surpassing $118,000 for the first time on Friday, July 11, 2025. The CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index gained 4.20% to $118,182.18, setting a record high close. The price climbed as high as $118,856 early Friday. This remarkable ascent represents a 9.7% increase from its local low of $108,300 on Monday, July 7. Over longer periods, Bitcoin has gained 42% in three months and 102% over the last year.

The primary catalyst for this rally has been the relentless demand from institutional investors and corporations. Investors rushed into Bitcoin ETFs, pouring in a net $1.2 billion on Thursday, July 10, marking their second-largest daily inflows. Total flows into Bitcoin ETFs have reached $68 billion. This shift signifies that capital is moving from retail venues to regulated structures, with Bitcoin increasingly being held rather than actively traded, a behavior aligning with long-term institutional adoption. Analysts view Bitcoin as becoming a macro-sensitive, institutionally-aligned asset, offering inflation resilience and structural tailwinds, particularly in its ETF form.

The market has also been influenced by the political landscape in the U.S. President Donald Trump, once a crypto skeptic, has become a major promoter of the industry. His crypto-friendly influence and the administration's stance have contributed to lifting Bitcoin's price to unprecedented levels. Despite broader macro headwinds, such as increasing tension due to looming tariffs from the Trump administration in August, Bitcoin has demonstrated resilience, with experts noting its role as a macro hedge and a maturing asset class. The rally also triggered a major unwinding of short positions, with over a billion dollars worth of bets against the token liquidated in 24 hours.

B. Ethereum's Performance and Institutional Interest

Ethereum (ETH) also showed significant strength, with its price jumping 9% to reclaim the $3,000 level for the first time in five months on July 11, 2025, breathing fresh life into the broader crypto market. As of July 11, Ethereum was trading at $2,948.45. On July 10, its price reached $2,986.96, after climbing from $2,614.41 on July 7.

The surge in Ethereum's price is largely attributed to unprecedented institutional adoption and strong spot Ethereum ETF flows. BlackRock's iShares Ethereum Trust recorded 23 consecutive trading days without outflows, signaling sustained institutional demand. On Thursday, July 10, BlackRock's ETHA set a new daily inflow record of $300.9 million, with combined U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs collectively pulling in $383.1 million. Global Ethereum-based investment products continued their positive streak, with net inflows of $226.4 million, averaging 1.6% of assets under management in weekly inflows over 11 weeks, compared to Bitcoin's 0.8%.

Another major factor supporting Ethereum's bullish scenario is the reduction in supply on exchanges. Data from Glassnode indicates that ETH balance on exchanges has reached eight-year lows of 13.5%, levels last seen in July 2016. This diminishing supply, coupled with increasing demand, may signal an incoming price rally fueled by a "supply shock". Analysts suggest that if Ethereum breaks above the critical $2,800 resistance level, it could potentially reach $3,500-$4000. Some even project a rally to $5,000 in 2025, citing network upgrades and increasing institutional demand.

C. Regulatory Developments & Industry Trends

The week of July 14-18, 2025, has been officially designated "Crypto Week" by the United States House of Representatives, signaling a pivotal period for crypto regulation. Lawmakers are set to debate and vote on three major bills: the CLARITY Act, the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act, and the Senate-originated GENIUS Act. These legislative efforts, backed by House Speaker Mike Johnson and the Trump administration, aim to solidify the U.S. as a global leader in digital asset innovation by establishing clear regulatory frameworks.

The proposed legislation includes:

• **CLARITY Act:** Aims to establish a comprehensive market structure, clarifying which digital assets are securities versus commodities and defining operational standards for exchanges.
• **Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act:** Prohibits the Federal Reserve from issuing a centrally controlled digital dollar, citing privacy concerns.
• **GENIUS Act:** Focuses on payment stablecoins, requiring full 1:1 asset backing, robust capital and transparency standards, and federal oversight, effectively transforming them into legally recognized, fully collateralized digital dollars.

These measures promise long-awaited regulatory clarity for the entire crypto ecosystem, potentially keeping startups, capital, and talent within the U.S. while accelerating the tokenization of traditional assets. The U.S. Treasury projects that the stablecoin market could reach $3.7 trillion by 2030, and supporters believe clear rules will enable this growth.

Beyond the U.S., the blockchain ecosystem continues to evolve rapidly. In Q2 2025, Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Commerce recorded a 51% increase in blockchain-related business registrations, signaling the Kingdom's strategic pivot toward Web3 and the digital economy. European fintech startup Rewallets has also updated its wallet architecture to align fully with the EU's forthcoming MiCA (Markets in Crypto-Assets) regulations, setting a new standard for wallet providers. These global developments underscore a broader trend of increasing institutional adoption and regulatory maturation in the cryptocurrency space.

V. Outlook for July 14-20, 2025

A. UAE & Middle East Outlook

The UAE and broader Middle East markets are expected to maintain their positive sentiment, driven by continued non-oil private sector expansion and favorable global trade developments. Economic confidence in the UAE remains high, with the majority foreseeing a stronger economy in 2025. Growth prospects are forecast to remain strong, averaging close to 4% over 2025-2028, similar to estimated levels for 2024. This growth will be underpinned by public investment, government efforts to diversify the economy, and increasing trade and foreign investment. Projects such as the Saadiyat cultural district and Disney Park in Abu Dhabi, and the Wynn integrated resort in Ras Al Khaimah, are expected to boost tourism revenue.

The UAE has also signed Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements (CEPAs) with 27 trade partners, including India and Turkiye. While the non-oil sectors could be modestly affected by proposed U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum if no agreement is reached (steel and aluminum accounted for 4.3% of the UAE's total non-oil exports in 2023), the overall impact is expected to be limited given the UAE's substantial assets and domestic stability. Fiscal surpluses are expected to continue, supporting an increase in the net asset position to an estimated 177% of GDP.

The Middle East region, despite geopolitical tensions, continues to attract investment, particularly in AI infrastructure. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are in a race for AI supremacy, with Saudi Arabia planning significant investments in data center capacity and AI zones, including a $10 billion venture capital fund and partnerships with Google Cloud and AWS. The UAE has also launched MGX, an investment firm focused on AI, and is involved in the proposed Stargate AI data center hub, aiming to invest $100 billion in AI infrastructure. This aggressive push into AI is expected to drive long-term economic transformation.

B. USA Outlook

For the United States, the week of July 14-20, 2025, will feature several important economic data releases. On Tuesday, July 15, key inflation data will be released, including Core Inflation Rate (MoM and YoY) and Inflation Rate (MoM and YoY) for June. The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index will also be published. These inflation figures will be closely watched for signs of continued moderation or potential reacceleration, especially after President Trump's recent tariff announcements.

On Wednesday, July 16, the Producer Price Index (PPI) data will be released, providing further insights into inflationary pressures. Thursday, July 17, will see the release of Retail Sales (MoM) and Initial Jobless Claims, offering updates on consumer spending and labor market health. Finally, on Friday, July 18, the Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment and Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations will be published, indicating consumer confidence and inflation outlook.

The second-quarter earnings season is set to begin in earnest during the week of July 14. Banking giants such as JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), and Wells Fargo (WFC) are scheduled to report earnings on Tuesday, July 15. Bank of America Corp (BAC), Goldman Sachs (GS), and Morgan Stanley (MS) will follow on Wednesday, July 16. These reports will offer critical insights into the health of the financial sector and broader corporate profitability. Analysts estimate a year-over-year earnings growth rate of 5.0% for S&P 500 companies in Q2 2025, which would be the lowest since Q4 2023.

Market sentiment will continue to be shaped by the evolving trade policy under the Trump administration. The 90-day "Liberation Day" tariff pause is approaching its expiry around July 8-9, and the U.S. is expected to make key decisions on trade tariffs and fiscal policy. While the decision to delay the implementation of reciprocal tariffs helps reduce immediate risks, prolonged uncertainty could cloud the outlook for the U.S. economy. Analysts anticipate a widespread deceleration in global growth due to the shock of higher U.S. tariffs, but a recession is likely to be avoided in 2025. Investors are advised to focus on high-quality companies with strong balance sheets and consider a balance between growth stocks (technology) and value sectors (healthcare, industrials, financials).

C. India Outlook

India's economic calendar for July 14-20, 2025, includes several important data points. On Monday, July 14, Wholesale Price Index (WPI) data for food, fuel, and manufacturing, as well as the overall WPI Inflation (YoY), will be released. The Inflation Rate (YoY and MoM) for June will also be published. Tuesday, July 15, will see the release of Passenger Vehicles Sales (YoY) and Balance of Trade, including Exports and Imports for June. On Friday, July 18, Bank Loan Growth (YoY), Deposit Growth (YoY), and Foreign Exchange Reserves for July 11 will be announced.

India's economic outlook for 2025-2026 is expected to balance evolving trade relations and efforts to boost domestic consumer demand. The Reserve Bank of India projects a real GDP growth of 6.5% for 2025-2026, consistent with the previous fiscal year. Inflation is expected to remain aligned with the central bank's medium-term target of 4%, potentially even falling slightly below that level in the coming months, with consumer food price inflation already at a low of 0.99% in May 2025.

The government's personal income tax reduction, announced in the 2025 Union Budget, is expected to increase consumer spending and could boost GDP by 0.6% to 0.7%. However, uncertainty around the tariff rates imposed by the United States on Indian exports could offset these gains by 0.1% to 0.3%. Despite external risks, India's fundamentals remain sound, with strong domestic growth drivers, sound macroeconomic fundamentals, and prudent policies. Retail investor participation has surged, reflecting growing public interest in equity markets and belief in the country's long-term potential.

Major company earnings reports for India during the week will include Sonam, Tata Technologies, and Ola Electric Mobility on July 14. These reports will provide insights into corporate performance across various sectors.

D. Cryptocurrency Outlook

The week of July 14-20, 2025, is set to be a landmark period for cryptocurrency regulation in the United States, with the House of Representatives designating it "Crypto Week". Lawmakers will debate and vote on critical bills such as the CLARITY Act, the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act, and the GENIUS Act. These legislative efforts aim to provide clear regulatory frameworks for digital assets, stablecoins, and central bank digital currencies, which could significantly impact market structure and foster innovation. The passage of these bills is expected to provide much-needed certainty, potentially attracting more capital and talent to the U.S. crypto sector and accelerating the tokenization of traditional assets.

From a market perspective, the bullish trend in cryptocurrencies is expected to continue. Bitcoin is predicted to trade above its 20, 50, 100, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), with the 20-day EMA near $107.5K acting as immediate support. A breakout above the $112,000 resistance level could trigger the next leg up towards $115,000–$120,000. Some analysts even forecast Bitcoin to surge to $136,000 in July, driven by post-geopolitical scare rallies, institutional buying outpacing miner supply, and a global wave of rate cuts flushing markets with liquidity.

Ethereum is also expected to maintain its bullish bias, trading above its key EMAs with the 20-day EMA near $2,523 offering short-term support. A confirmed breakout above $2,650 could pave the way for a retest of the $2,800–$2,900 resistance zone. The 50-day and 100-day EMAs (at ~$2,467 and ~$2,408) remain critical supports. The continued positive inflows into Ethereum ETFs reflect persistent institutional demand, which is a significant driver for its price.

Several crypto industry conferences are scheduled for the week, including "Bitcoin 2140 2025" and "Invest Web3 Forum Dubai 2025" in Dubai, "Web3 Summit 2025" in Berlin, and "NapulETH 2025" in Napoli. These events could foster networking, discussions on emerging trends, and potential new project announcements, further contributing to market activity and sentiment.